Commentary on 3Q 2026 HDB Flash Estimates

According to HDB’s flash estimates, resale flat prices fell again in 3Q 2026. After two consecutive quarters of declines, the HDB Resale Price Index (RPI) fell 0.2% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) to 202.4, marking a third consecutive quarter of declines.

In contrast, HDB resale transactions rose sharply by 17.7% q-o-q, from 6,396 cases in 2Q 2026 to 7,528 in 3Q 2026. On a year-on-year basis, a more measured uptick of 5.2% was recorded, compared with 7,517 units sold in 3Q 2025.

Chart 1: HDB RPI vs Number of Transactions

Source: HDB, ERA Research and Market Intelligence

“The spike in transactions coincides with the lifting of the 15-month wait-out period for private homeowners in July. This likely triggered an influx of right-sizers eager to fast-track their HDB purchases to gain quicker access to replacement housing,” said Eugene Lim, Key Executive Officer, ERA Singapore.

“Despite strong demand, price gains should continue to be kept in check by the influx of 13,480 MOP flats this year, alongside robust BTO supply and increased first-timer eligibility.”

“Cautiousness will still be a defining feature in coming quarters, reinforced by sluggish employment growth and recent job cuts in 2Q 2026. Buyers with tighter budgets are also expected to pivot towards more accessible options, such as non-mature resale flats or subsidised BTO units.”

Spike in Resale Transactions Led by Increased Sales of Larger Flat Types

Table 1: Resale HDB volumes by flat types (1Q 2026 to 3Q 2026)

Source: HDB, data.gov.sg (as of 1 October 2026), ERA Research and Market Intelligence

(Notes: *3Q 2026 breakdown based on resale transaction records from data.gov.sg,**Includes Multi-Generation flats)

According to HDB resale transaction data from data.gov.sg (as at 30 September 2026), 1,822 5-room flats and 535 Executive flats were sold in 3Q 2026. This represents quarterly volume growth of 23.7% and 39.0%, respectively, compared with 2Q 2026, when 1,473 5-room flats and 385 Executive flats were sold.

Resale transactions for 4-room flats also rose significantly by 17.2% q-o-q in 3Q 2026, reaching 3,270 units, up from 2,791 in 2Q 2026.

“The return of right-sizers to the market could have fuelled the surge in activity for 5-room and Executive flats this quarter.”

Volume of Million-Dollar HDB Resale Flat Deals Exceeds 500 Transactions

“A total of 597 resale flats changed hands for at least $1 million in 3Q 2026, up 21.8% q-o-q from the 490 units recorded in 2Q 2026. This tally sets a new high, as it is the first time that million-dollar flat transactions have crossed the 500-unit mark in a quarter.”

“Demand for million-dollar flats could have been driven by cash-flush private homeowners, who now face fewer barriers to entering the HDB resale market.”

Chart 2: HDB Flat Transactions priced at $1M and above

Source: HDB, data.gov.sg (as of 1 October 2026), ERA Research and Market Intelligence 

“Mature estates remained the primary driver of million-dollar flat sales in 3Q 2026, accounting for 519 transactions, or 88.4% of all such deals. At the town level, Toa Payoh led the market with 93 million-dollar flat transactions, followed by Queenstown and Bukit Merah with 86 and 56 deals, respectively.”

“The bulk of these high-value deals were also concentrated in landmark projects in sought-after precincts, such as Bidadari and Dawson. Between Alkaff Oasis and Alkaff Courtview in Bidadari, 63 million-dollar flat sales were recorded in 3Q 2026, while Dawson Vista, SkyVille@Dawson, SkyParc@Dawson, and SkyTerrace@Dawson recorded 38 such deals in total."

ERA’s Outlook and Forecast for 2026

Table 2: ERA forecast of HDB Resale Market

Source: HDB, ERA Research and Market Intelligence

“Resale activity will likely remain elevated until demand from the current wave of private-property right-sizers tapers off. That said, this is unlikely to spike prices, as most of these buyers are motivated by genuine homeownership needs.”

“Sellers will need to keep their asking prices realistic, given the growing MOP flat supply, a strong BTO pipeline, and lingering buyer caution. Simultaneously, the new $18,000 household income ceiling could divert first-timer demand from the resale market to upcoming BTO launches.”

“Offers with Cash Over Valuation (COV) are likely to be limited to flats with compelling attributes, such as larger floor areas, a longer remaining lease term, or proximity to schools and MRT stations.”

Barring macroeconomic shocks, ERA Singapore expects the HDB resale market to record around 26,000 transactions in 2026, with annual price growth of 2% to 5%. This aligns with the Government’s aim for a stable and sustainable HDB resale market, characterised by resilient buyer demand and healthy price growth.

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For media queries, please contact:
Eugene Syn
PR Manager
eugene.syn@era.com.sg